Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

This important study reports three experiments examining how the subjective experience of task regularities influences perceptual decision-making. Although the evidence linking subjective ratings to ...

The probability of worsening frailty increases over time, but targeted strategies might delay or reverse this progression, ...

Monthly trading volume in prediction markets surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by the end of ...

The ecology of the North Atlantic is constantly changing. Sometimes it changes abruptly. Extreme events are one driver of ...

While notable sports betting companies like DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics launched prediction markets in December, this ...

Just because a critical failure hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the future. The question becomes: If it ...

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder, revealed through a series of posts on Farcaster that he believes prediction markets are ...

Prediction markets platform Kalshi is trying to dress up gambling as serious economic analysis. And not only is this ...

Discover how tail risk impacts portfolios, why rare financial events matter, and strategies for safeguarding investments against significant, unexpected losses.

The idea of a massive Bitcoin ETF scenario has captivated investors since U.S. regulators approved spot funds in early 2024. By the end of 2025, those ETFs held more than 1.31 million BTC, ...