This post is part of the Health Affairs Forefront short series, “Value Assessment: Where Do We Go Post-COVID?” The series explores what we have learned about value assessment and related issues during ...

We make decisions every day, many of which are so straightforward that we hardly notice we are making them. But we tend to struggle when faced with decisions that have uncertain outcomes, such as ...

Seems like everything these days is COVID-19. Recently the editor of the Journal of Business Forecasting asked me to write an article on demand planning under uncertainty.* Initially it sounded ...

Dr. Gary Klein is a cognitive psychologist and one of the world’s foremost experts on human decision making. I had the opportunity to talk with him recently about the present pandemic, and I asked him ...

Professionals don’t experience uncertainty in decision making — as an amateur, I “knew” this. Before I worked in a medical center, I thought medicine was an exact science: Doctors were trained to ...

Humans possess a remarkable balance between stability and flexibility, enabling them to quickly establish new plans and adjust goals even in the face of sudden changes. However, "model-free ...

Over time, companies that make better decisions faster consistently outperform their competition. When those decisions lead to better customer experiences, companies can improve retention, customer ...

Uncertainty seems to be everywhere right now. Uncertainty about the economy, politics, careers, weather, and wars, to name just a few. Doubt sets in anytime we face a decision with incomplete or ...

As we’re battling a virus that scientists still don’t fully understand, watching the stock market sink, then soar, then sink again, and facing a contentious election, the future seems completely ...

What happens when your first big product launch collides with a global tariff spike? For one founder, a deck of mental models became the difference between failure and clarity. Re:Mind, a ...