Long before statistical whiz Nate Silver predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential election and "Moneyball" became a household word, structural engineers employed the Monte Carlo method of ...

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) represents a significant evolution in the evaluation of nuclear power plant safety, integrating time-dependent models of system evolution with stochastic ...

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA), which was introduced in the 1970s as complement to deterministic safety analysis methods, is a well-established tool that supports design and safety assessment ...

This study investigates the potential of probabilistic classification to enhance credit-scoring accuracy, with a focus on model validation through reliability thresholds. By quantifying prediction ...

What Are Risk-Neutral Probabilities? Risk-neutral probabilities are probabilities of potential future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. In other words, ...

Just because a critical failure hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the future. The question becomes: If it ...

Learn how to accurately quantify credit risk with key measures such as probability of default, loss given default, and exposure at default for informed lending.