Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

For millennia, humans have sought new ways of predicting the future, leading to such methods as the crystal ball, star charts and even tea leaf reading. Luckily, the modern business leader has better ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

Data Khosrowshahi says the pace of change in technology, consumer behaviour, and global events has made long-term predictions ...

Theresa Gaffney is the lead Morning Rounds writer and reports on health care, new research, and public policy, with a particular interest in mental health, gender-affirming care, and LGBTQ+ patient ...

For years, the strange phenomenon of precognition–an unwavering “gut feeling” that something will happen in the future–has puzzled scientists. The eerie concept may sound far-fetched, but many studies ...